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Long-range planning does not deal with future decisions, but with the future of present decisions.
Peter F Drucker
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Preparation
Future Trends
If you want to be in business for a long time, you need to develop a vision of the future and the place of your business in that future. You need not only to be aware of the trends in your market area (technology, competition, trade regulations, etc.) but also have a sense of the general direction in which the world is developing.
Questions to consider are: What will Ireland look like in 2010 – or even in 2025? Where will your business fit? What should you be doing to prepare?
Consider these current trends:
- To protect themselves from crime and hostility, people are retreating into the safe environment of the home
- People want to do exciting things but want to be safe – emotional escape in a risk-free fantasy world. Consider changes in food (exotic meals), shopping (fun shopping), interactive movies and games, etc.
- Luxuries are no longer big purchases but include “rewards” like handmade chocolates, week-end breaks and expensive restaurant meals. Spending patterns are becoming less predictable
- Technology allows products to be focused on very specific needs
- People are less concerned about job security and more willing to change jobs several times during their careers to pursue new opportunities
- Consumers are more health-conscious and critical about the behaviour of companies and the quality of products and services
- People have higher expectations of life. They want to achieve more – often materially
- Time is a major factor in most people’s lives. They feel a need to cram activities into the day (reading, movie, theatre, socialising, being a good parent or partner, do a course, make a career, etc.)
- Older people stay healthier much longer and age does not dictate the pace of life anymore. Old people act young
- Society and business is more and more influenced by women.
Read science fiction. Much of what was written as science fiction 20 or 30 years ago is now part of our everyday lives.
Train yourself to watch trends. Look for:
- Changes in food, new products, trendy restaurants
- The introduction of new products (failures and successes)
- Changes in family structure
- Changes in demographics
- Changes in work environment
- Changes in environmental behaviour
- Whether there is optimism or pessimism in relation to the economy
- New cultures
- New words (Internet Nanny, search engine, dinky)
- Science fiction becoming real.
Watch for the balancing impact of the Action = Reaction principle. For example:
Action
- Rapid change of technology, increasing role of computers
- Globalisation of markets due to easy access of information and technology
- Re-engineering, jobs replaced or supported by use of new technology
- Multi-cultural influences due to all information available
Reaction
- Back to nature in response to technology
- Back to old values/culture as those things are familiar to us
- Back into our homes to protect us from the outside (hostile) world
- Filters on information (for example, the Internet Nanny)
- Simplifying information
- Escapism in movies, computer games, adventure trips, etc.
- To balance the stress, “perks” to cheer us (massage, fancy dinner, clothes, etc.).
Some other things to think about are:
- The use of drugs for specific purposes (memory enhancers, warfare)
- Development of genetic engineering
- The role of computers and telecommunications in our society
- Nano-technology (machines the size of an atom.
What are your predictions for Ireland in 2010 and 2025? Write them down. Where does your business fit within this?
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